Given the delays we are currently experiencing with initiating the impact evaluation study for 3ie, this document shows various operational scenarios and their implications on the study design so as to provide nuanced information to aid in planning and decision-making with regard to the study implementation.

The scenarios we present here are based on an assumption that 3ie will be unwilling to move the end date of data collection. As it stands now, 3ie has stipulated that all data collection must end by October 2016. As per current design, this gives us a 10 month data collection period starting at end of January (baseline data collection) with 4 steps each with 1 data collection point at 2 monthly intervals. This design also allows for a maximum of 6 months data collection for the incidence study. If the current study design is to be implemented as per submitted timeframe, we have anticipated that the sample size requirements are well within achievable limits. The scenarios we present here show what the implications of any delays with the study implementation are specifically on sample size and operational considerations.
 

Scenario 1

Figure 1 illustrates the proposed scheme of the stepped wedge cluster-randomised controlled trial for the assessment of the targeted FBPM and its associated components of SBCC and home fortification based on a fixed end point of October 2016 for data collection and a delay of a month that will negate the possibility of conducting a baseline assessment and assuming that WFP will still be able to start rollout by February 2016 for the first 2 clusters and then subsequent rollout into other clusters every 2 months.
 

Figure 1: Scenario 1 of 1 month delay with no baseline

Cluster Baseline Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4
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Measurements Measurement 1 Measurement 2 Measurement 3 Measurement 4
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Scenario 2

Given a fixed end point of October 2016 for data collection and a delay of a month plus another minimum delay of a month due to WFP and partners unable to implement in first study clusters by February 2016, we adjust the implementation scheme as follows based on monthly increments of delay:
 

Scenario 2a: Figure 2 shows the implementation scheme based on an additional delay of 1 month for intervention rollout with rollout start planned for March 2016 instead of February 2016.
 

Figure 2: 2 month delay with intervention starting at February 2016

Cluster Preparation Baseline Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4
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Measurements Measurement 1 Measurement 2 Measurement 3 Measurement 4
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Scenario 2b: Figure 3 shows the implementation scheme based on an additional delay of 2-3 months for intervention rollout with rollout start planned for either April or May 2016 instead of February 2016.
 

Figure 3: 3 to 4 month delay with intervention starting at April or May 2016

Cluster Preparation Preparation Baseline Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 End
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Measurements Measurement 1 Measurement 2 Measurement 3 End
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Scenario 2c: Figure 4 shows the implementation scheme based on an additional delay of 4 months for intervention rollout with rollout start planned for June 2016 instead of February 2016.
 

Figure 4: 4 to 5 month delay with intervention starting at June or July 2016

Cluster Preparation Preparation Preparation Preparation Baseline Step 1 Step 2 End
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Measurements Measurement 1 Measurement 2 End
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